Capillary loss on nailfold capillary microscopy is associated with mortality in systemic sclerosis.

The objective of this study is to test the association of the severity of nailfold capillaroscopy (NFC) abnormalities with mortality in systemic sclerosis (SSc). One hundred and seventy SSc patients underwent an extensive evaluation (including high-resolution computed tomography, pulmonary function tests, and Doppler echocardiography) at baseline following a standard protocol. Capillary loss on NFC was evaluated using the avascular score (AS, ranging from 0 to 3), and the mean number of ectasias, megacapillaries, and hemorrhages per finger was also recorded. After a mean period of 10.1 ± 4.9 years, the life status of the patients was ascertained. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used for statistical analysis. Overall, 73 patients died. By univariate Cox analysis, the AS was significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.64, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.19, p = 0.001). In our study, this association was stronger than that of race, gender, anticentromere antibodies, anti-topoisomerase I antibodies, and form of disease and had similar strength to that of skin score in univariate analyses. However, after controlling for a combination of variables (age, skin score, gender, race, signs of peripheral ischemia, and extent of interstitial lung disease, all independently associated with mortality), the association of AS with mortality was blunted (HR = 1.15, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.65, p = 0.445). Other NFC variables were not related to mortality. AS was associated with higher risk of death and, despite not having an independent association with mortality after controlling for a set of demographic and clinical variables, may be a useful tool in prognostic evaluation of SSc.

Clinical algorithms for the diagnosis and prognosis of interstitial lung disease in systemic sclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is currently the primary cause of death in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Thoracic high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) is considered the gold standard for diagnosis. Recent studies have proposed several clinical algorithms to predict the diagnosis and prognosis of SSc-ILD. OBJECTIVE: To test the clinical algorithms to predict the presence and prognosis of SSc-ILD and to evaluate the association of extent of ILD with mortality in a cohort of SSc patients. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study, including 177 SSc patients assessed by clinical evaluation, laboratory tests, pulmonary function tests, and HRCT. Three clinical algorithms, combining lung auscultation, chest radiography, and percentage predicted forced vital capacity (FVC), were applied for the diagnosis of different extents of ILD on HRCT. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional models were used to analyze the association of algorithms and the extent of ILD on HRCT with the risk of death using hazard ratios (HR). RESULTS: The prevalence of ILD on HRCT was 57.1% and 79 patients died (44.6%) in a median follow-up of 11.1 years. For identification of ILD with extent ≥10% and ≥20% on HRCT, all algorithms presented a high sensitivity (>89%) and a very low negative likelihood ratio (<0.16). For prognosis, survival was decreased for all algorithms, especially the algorithm C (HR = 3.47, 95% CI: 1.62-7.42), which identified the presence of ILD based on crackles on lung auscultation, findings on chest X-ray, or FVC <80%. Extensive disease as proposed by Goh et al. (extent of ILD > 20% on HRCT or, in indeterminate cases, FVC < 70%) had a significantly higher risk of death (HR = 3.42, 95% CI: 2.12-5.52). Survival was not different between patients with extent of 10% or 20% of ILD on HRCT, and analysis of 10-year mortality suggested that a threshold of 10% may also have a good predictive value for mortality. However, there is no clear cutoff above which mortality is sharply increased. CONCLUSION: Clinical algorithms had a good diagnostic performance for extents of SSc-ILD on HRCT with clinical and prognostic relevance (≥10% and ≥20%), and were also strongly related to mortality. Non-HRCT-based algorithms could be useful when HRCT is not available. This is the first study to replicate the prognostic algorithm proposed by Goh et al. in a developing country.